0:11First, a video. (Video) Yes, it is a scrambled egg. But as you look at
it, I hope you'll begin to feel just slightly uneasy.Because you may notice that what's actually happening is that the
egg is unscrambling itself. And you'll now see the yolk and the white have
separated. And now they're going to be poured back into the
egg. And we all know in our heart of hearts that this is not the way the universe works. A scrambled egg is mush -- tasty mush -- but it's mush.An egg is a beautiful, sophisticated thing that can create even
more sophisticated things, such as chickens. And we know in our heart of hearts that the universe does not travel from
mush to complexity. In fact, this gut instinct is reflected in one of the most fundamental laws of physics, the second law of thermodynamics, or the law of entropy.What that says basically is that
the general tendency of the universe is to move from order and structure to lack of order, lack of structure -- in fact, to mush. And that's why that video feels a bit strange.
1:31And yet, look around us. What we see around us is staggering complexity. Eric Beinhocker estimates that in New York City alone, there are some 10 billion SKUs, or distinct commodities, being traded. That's hundreds of times as many species as there are on
Earth. And they're being traded by a species of almost seven billion individuals, who are linked by trade, travel, and the Internet into a global system of stupendous
2:03So here's a great puzzle: in a universe ruled by the second law
of thermodynamics, how is it possible to generate the sort of complexity I've described, the sort of complexity represented by you and me and the convention center?Well, the answer seems to
be, the universe can create complexity, but with great difficulty. In pockets, there appear what my
colleague, Fred Spier, calls "Goldilocks conditions" -- not too hot, not too cold, just right for the creation of complexity. And slightly more complex things appear. And where you have slightly more
complex things, you can get slightly more complex things. And in this way, complexity builds stage by stage. Each stage is
magical because it creates the impression of something utterly
new appearing almost out of nowhere in the universe. We refer in big history to these moments as threshold moments. And at each threshold, the going gets
tougher. The complex things get more fragile, more vulnerable; the Goldilocks conditions get more stringent, and it's more
difficult to create complexity.
3:20Now, we, as extremely complex creatures, desperately need to know this story of how the universe creates complexity despite the second
law, and why complexity means vulnerability and fragility. And that's the story that we tell in big
history. But to do it, you have do something that may, at first sight, seem completely impossible. You have to survey the whole history of the universe. So let's do it. (Laughter) Let's begin by winding the timeline back13.7 billion years, to the beginning of time.
4:08Around us, there's nothing. There's not even time or space. Imagine the darkest, emptiest thing you can and cube it a gazillion
times and that's where we are. And then suddenly, bang! A universe appears, an entire universe. And we've crossed
our first threshold. The universe is tiny; it's smaller than an
atom. It's incredibly hot. It contains everything that's in today's universe, so you can imagine, it's busting. And it's expanding at incredible speed. And at first, it's just a
blur, but very quickly distinct things begin to appear in that
blur. Within the first second, energy itself shatters into distinct forces including electromagnetism and gravity. And energy does something else quite magical:it congeals to form matter
-- quarks that will create protons and leptons that include electrons. And all of that happens in the first second.
5:05Now we move forward 380,000 years. That's twice as long as humans have been on this planet. And now simple atoms appear of hydrogen and
helium. Now I want to pause for a moment, 380,000 years after the origins of the universe, because we actually know quite a lot about the universe at this stage. We know above all that it was extremely
simple. It consisted of huge clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms, and they have no structure. They're
really a sort of cosmic mush. But that's not completely
true. Recent studies by satellites such as the WMAP satellitehave shown that, in fact, there are just tiny differences in that background. What you see here, the blue areas are
about a thousandth of a degree cooler than the red areas. These are tiny differences, but it was enough for the universe to move on to the next stage of building complexity.
6:04And this is how it works. Gravity is more powerful where
there's more stuff. So where you get slightly denser areas,gravity starts compacting clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms. So we can imagine the early universe breaking upinto a billion
clouds. And each cloud is compacted, gravity gets more powerful as density increases, the temperature begins to rise at the center of each cloud, and then, at the center of each cloud, the temperature crosses the threshold temperature of 10 million
degrees, protons start to fuse, there's a huge release of energy, and, bam! We have our first
stars. From about 200 million years after the Big Bang, stars begin to appear all through the universe, billions of them. And the universe is now significantly more interesting and more
6:59Stars will create the Goldilocks conditions for crossing two new thresholds. When
very large stars die, they create temperatures so high that protons begin to fuse in all sorts of exotic combinations, to form all the elements of the periodic table. If, like me, you're wearing a gold ring, it was forged in a supernova explosion. So now the universe is chemically
more complex. And in a chemically more complex universe, it's possible to make more things. And what starts happening is
that, around young suns, young stars, all these elements combine, they swirl around, the energy of the star stirs them around, they form particles, they form snowflakes, they form little dust
motes, they form rocks, they form asteroids, and eventually, they form planets and moons. And that is how our solar system was formed,four and a half billion years ago. Rocky planets like our
Earth are significantly more complex than stars because they contain a much greater diversity of materials. So we've crossed a fourth threshold of complexity.
8:08Now, the going gets tougher. The next stage introduces entities that are significantly more fragile, significantly more
vulnerable, but they're also much more creative and much more capable of generating further complexity. I'm talking, of course, about living organisms. Living
organisms are created by chemistry. We are huge packages of
chemicals. So, chemistry is dominated by the electromagnetic
force. That operates over smaller scales than gravity,which explains why you and I are smaller than stars or planets. Now, what are the ideal conditions for chemistry?What are the Goldilocks
conditions? Well, first, you need energy, but not too much. In the center of a star, there's so much energy that any atoms
that combine will just get busted apart again. But not too
little. In intergalactic space, there's so little energy that atoms can't combine. What you want is just the right amount, and planets, it turns out, are just right, because they're close to
stars, but not too close.
9:11You also need a great diversity of chemical elements, and you need liquid such as water. Why? Well, in gasses, atoms move past each other so
fast that they can't hitch up. In solids, atoms are stuck together, they can't move. In
liquids, they can cruise and cuddle and link up to form molecules. Now, where do you find such Goldilocks conditions? Well, planets are great, and our early
Earth was almost perfect. It was just the right distance from its starto contain huge oceans of open water. And deep beneath those oceans, at cracks in the Earth's
crust, you've got heat seeping up from inside the Earth, and you've got a great diversity of elements. So at those deep oceanic vents,fantastic chemistry began to happen, and atoms combined in all sorts of exotic combinations.
10:08But of course, life is more than just exotic chemistry. How do
you stabilize those huge molecules that seem to be viable? Well, it's here that life introduces an entirely new trick. You don't stabilize the
individual; you stabilize the template, the thing that carries information, and you allow the template to copy itself. And DNA, of course, is the beautiful molecule that contains that information. You'll be familiar with the double helix of DNA. Each rung contains information. So, DNA contains
information about how to make living organisms. And DNA also copies itself. So, it copies itself and scatters the
templates through the ocean. So the information spreads. Notice that information has become part of our story. The real beauty of DNA though is in its imperfections. As it copies
itself, once in every billion rungs, there tends to be an error. And what that means is that DNA is,
in effect, learning. It's accumulating new ways of making living
organisms because some of those errors work. So DNA's learning and it's building greater diversity and greater complexity. And we can see this happening over the last four billion years.
11:26For most of that time of life on Earth, living organisms have been relatively simple -- single cells. But they had great
diversity, and, inside, great complexity. Then from about 600 to 800 million years ago, multi-celled organisms appear. You
get fungi, you get fish, you get plants, you get amphibia, you get reptiles, and then, of course, you get the dinosaurs. And occasionally, there are disasters. Sixty-five million years
ago, an asteroid landed on Earth near the Yucatan Peninsula, creating conditions equivalent to those of a nuclear war, and the dinosaurs were wiped out.Terrible
news for the dinosaurs, but great news for our mammalian
ancestors, who flourished in the niches left empty by the dinosaurs. And we human beings are part of that
creative evolutionary pulse that began 65 million years ago with the landing of an asteroid.
12:29Humans appeared about 200,000 years ago. And I believe we count as a threshold
in this great story. Let me explain why. We've seen that DNA learns in a sense, it accumulates information. But it is
so slow. DNA accumulates information through random errors, some of which just happen to work. But DNA had actually
generated a faster way of learning: it had produced organisms with
brains, and those organisms can learn in real time. They accumulate information, they learn. The sad thing is, when they die, the information dies with them. Now what makes
humans different is human language. We are blessed with a language, a system of communication, so powerful and so precise that we can share what we've learned with such precision that it can accumulate in the collective memory. And that
means it can outlast the individuals who learned that
information, and it can accumulate from generation to
generation. And that's why, as a species, we're so creative and so powerful, and that's why we have a history. We
seem to be the only species in four billion years to have this
13:43I call this ability collective learning. It's what makes us
different. We can see it at work in the earliest stages of human history. We evolved as a species in the
savanna lands of Africa, but then you see humans migrating into new
environments, into desert lands, into jungles, into the ice age tundra of Siberia -- tough, tough environment -- into the
Americas, into Australasia. Each migration involved learning
-- learning new ways of exploiting the environment,new ways of dealing with their surroundings.
14:15Then 10,000 years ago, exploiting a sudden change in global climate with the end of
the last ice age, humans learned to farm. Farming was an energy bonanza. And exploiting that energy, human
populations multiplied. Human societies got larger, denser, more interconnected. And then from about 500 years ago, humans began to link up globally through shipping, through
trains, through telegraph, through the Internet, until now we seem to form a single global brain of almost seven
billion individuals. And that brain is learning at warp
speed. And in the last 200 years, something else has
happened. We've stumbled on another energy bonanza in fossil fuels. So fossil fuels and collective learning together explain the
staggering complexity we see around us.
15:12So, here we are, back at the convention center. We've been on a journey, a
return journey, of 13.7 billion years. I hope you agree that this is a powerful story. And it's a story in which humans play
an astonishing and creative role.But it also contains warnings. Collective learning is a very, very powerful force, and it's not clear that we humans are in charge of it. I remember very vividly as
a child growing up in England, living through the Cuban Missile
Crisis. For a few days, the entire biosphere seemed to be on the verge of destruction. And the same weapons
are still here,and they are still armed. If we avoid that trap, others are waiting for us. We're burning fossil fuels at such a
rate that we seem to be undermining the Goldilocks
conditions that made it possible for human civilizations to flourish over the last 10,000 years. So what big history can do is show us the nature of our complexity and fragility and the dangers that face us, but it can also show
us our power with collective learning.
16:28And now, finally, this is what I want. I want my grandson,
Daniel, and his friends and his generation, throughout the world, to know the story of big history, and to know it so
well that they understand both the challenges that face usand the opportunities that face us. And that's why a group of us are building a free, online
syllabus in big history for high school students throughout the world. We believe that big history will be a vital intellectual tool for them, as Daniel and his
generation face the huge challenges and also the huge opportunities ahead of them at this threshold moment in the history of our beautiful planet.
17:22I thank you for your attention.